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Monday, Jan 19, 2026

Geopolitical Chessboard: Dugin's Receding Threats Against Turkey

Following Assad's Ouster, Dugin's Assertive Rhetoric Gives Way to Diplomatic Softening
In the intricate tapestry of Middle Eastern geopolitics, the recent overthrow of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad has not only altered power dynamics on the ground but has also sent ripples through diplomatic corridors from Moscow to Ankara.

At the heart of this unfolding drama is Alexander Dugin, the hardline Russian nationalist philosopher whose online outburst directed at Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan underscores the complex and often tumultuous relationship between regional powers.

In a heated social media post, now conspicuously absent, Dugin condemned Turkey's actions, foretelling a rueful future for Erdogan and accusing him of betraying both Russia and Iran.

'From now on you will regret,' Dugin warned, branding Erdogan's maneuvers in Syria as misguided and strategically flawed.

However, in a striking volte-face, Dugin shortly thereafter moderated his tone, retracting the threat of Russian reprisals and underscoring Moscow's resilience despite perceived Western portrayals of weakness.

This rhetorical oscillation from Dugin, a vocal advocate for Russia's assertive foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine, illustrates the oscillating stances Russia may find itself maneuvering amidst heightened regional tensions.

As the dust settles in Damascus, the newfound realities bring opportunities and risks for regional actors.

The rapid advance of Islamist militants, culminating in Assad's fall, has realigned alliances and strategic goals.

Turkey, maintaining its support for rebel factions while disavowing direct involvement, finds itself poised to achieve longstanding objectives: facilitating the return of over three million Syrian refugees and curbing Kurdish influence in northern Syria.

As Erdogan eyes these strategic gains, the region watches closely to see whether the initial spark of hostility from Moscow reflects broader policy shifts or if it was merely a rhetorical slip.

Despite the reassurances from Dugin that Russia harbors no ill intent towards Turkey, Erdogan faces a complex strategic environment where alliances can be ephemeral.

The specter of Kurdish power consolidation, potentially backed by Western interests, looms large.

Without Russian aid in Syria, Erdogan must tread carefully.

Ultimately, as the Syrian theater of conflict evolves, Dugin's vacillating commentary may well presage a broader recalibration in Russia-Turkey relations.

The geopolitical chess game continues, with every move scrutinized by a watchful world.
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