LISBON — Just over a year after Portugal's last national election, the country is gearing up for a snap vote scheduled for this Sunday.

This election comes in the wake of significant political upheaval that has led to a crisis within the government.

The political landscape has shifted dramatically since Prime Minister Luís Montenegro faced scrutiny this year regarding Spinumviva, a data protection consultancy linked to his family, which serves several government contract-holding clients.

Although Montenegro defended against allegations of conflict of interest and survived multiple censure motions, he ultimately resigned following a failed confidence vote in parliament in March 2023.

As the upcoming election approaches, many observers note that the situation appears almost unchanged from the previous year, with the same candidates competing and predictions of a hung parliament looming.

However, in the intervening fourteen months, inter-party tensions have escalated, complicating the possibility of forming a stable government.

Current polling suggests that Montenegro's Democratic Alliance is expected to secure the highest percentage of votes but will likely fall short of the 116 seats needed for a majority in the 230-seat Assembly of the Republic.

The Socialist Party, led by Pedro Nuno Santos, is projected to take second place, with the far-right Chega party presumed to remain the third-largest force in parliament.

Public sentiment appears to lean negatively towards both leading candidates.

According to recent surveys, just over half of the populace approves of the incumbent prime minister, while fewer than a third hold a favorable view of his Socialist challenger.

Notably, many respondents expressed reluctance to associate or travel with either candidate.

The failure of the previous Socialist administration, spearheaded by António Costa, to secure a budget agreement has left many voters attributing blame to the Socialist Party for the current political crisis.

This historical context may grant Montenegro a slight edge in voters' favor.

The campaign leading up to the election has faced unprecedented challenges, including the postponement of a key debate due to a significant power outage affecting the Iberian Peninsula.

Additionally, the initial days of the campaign were overshadowed by international events, particularly the papal conclave, detracting local media attention from the electoral process.

Despite the urgency of domestic issues, campaign discussions have notably excluded significant topics like U.S. tariffs and Portugal's role in European defense initiatives.

Instead, candidates have focused their debates on immigration policy and the controversy surrounding Spinumviva.

While the fear of Montenegro allying with the far-right has lessened compared to last year, the potential for political instability remains.

Should Montenegro receive the most votes, he will be tasked with forming a government, but failure to secure a parliamentary majority could lead to his bid being rejected.

Historically, the relationship between the major parties has been one of constructive collaboration, as evidenced by Santos's decision to allow key votes to proceed without political obstruction during Montenegro's previous minority government.

However, the climate following the failed confidence vote suggests that party relations have soured considerably.

If Montenegro's government fails to gain parliamentary support, responsibility would shift to Santos, who may encounter similar challenges in securing a governing majority.

Portugal's constitution does not impose a specific timeline for establishing a new government, nor does it stipulate a framework for dissolving parliament amidst political deadlock.

Currently, the constitution prohibits calling new snap elections within six months of a recent vote, as well as during the final six months of a presidential term.

As President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa's term ends in March 2026, the first window for new national elections would not open until late spring next year.

Should political negotiations stall, Portugal risks entering a prolonged period of caretaking governance led by Montenegro.

Meanwhile, voters are set to participate in local elections this fall and choose a successor to de Sousa in January, with the potential for a fourth national election within four years looming in 2026.