Far-right AfD Gains Momentum in Recent German Polls
A Deutschlandtrend survey indicates a rise in support for the AfD while traditional parties face declining approval ratings.
The political landscape in Germany is shifting as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party gains traction, according to a recent Deutschlandtrend survey conducted for German broadcaster ARD.
Following the general election less than two months prior, in which the center-right bloc of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) secured nearly 29% of the vote, the AfD emerged as a significant contender, obtaining approximately 21% of the electorate's support.
In the latest survey results, conducted by infratest dimap from March 31 to April 2 with a sample of 1,334 eligible voters, the CDU/CSU saw a decline, dropping to 26%, the lowest percentage recorded since October 2022. In contrast, the AfD reached a new high of 24%, indicating a growing base of support amid changing political sentiments.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), which aims to form a coalition government with the CDU/CSU, remains stagnant at 16%, marking its lowest-ever result in a general election.
The Green Party, which previously held a position in the caretaker government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), is now polling at 11%, a decrease of 1%.
The socialist Left Party has increased its support to 10%, while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the Free Democrats (FDP) continue to fall below the 5% threshold necessary for parliamentary representation, both polling at 4%.
Leadership challenges are also evident within the CDU.
Friedrich Merz, who aspires to become chancellor, is facing diminishing approval ratings, with 70% of surveyed voters expressing dissatisfaction with his performance.
This decline is closely related to recent policy shifts regarding public debt.
Following the election, Merz introduced changes to the 'debt brake' policy, enabling increased borrowing for defense spending and a €500 billion ($555 billion) infrastructure and climate investment plan, despite previously ruling out new debt.
Many respondents are skeptical of this policy reversal, including a third of CDU/CSU supporters.
The survey indicated that voters prioritize investment in the renovation of schools, daycare centers, and the repair of deteriorating transportation infrastructure.
However, coalition negotiations among the CDU/CSU and SPD are continuing, with reports of contentious issues surrounding proposals for a new property tax and the relocation of asylum procedures.
Public support exists for reducing corporate taxes and establishing speed limits on the Autobahn, while there is a general aversion to raising the retirement age beyond 67 or reintroducing mandatory military service.
As the new German government prepares to address pressing domestic issues, it will also face international challenges, notably the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Poll responses reveal significant concern among the electorate regarding the potential for further Russian aggression in Europe, with two-thirds of participants expressing unease about the stability of NATO alliances and the reliability of U.S. protection.
Concerns over U.S. trade policy are also prevalent, particularly with recent announcements from the U.S. on new tariffs impacting global trade dynamics.
The impending tariffs set to take effect will impose additional costs on imports from the European Union, leading to fears among the German populace about the implications for the national economy.
As a response to these developments, seven out of ten survey respondents support the idea of implementing higher tariffs on U.S. products in retaliation, echoing concerns about the potential detriment to Germany's economic growth.
The Economic Ifo Institute has projected that the new tariffs could lead to a 0.3% reduction in economic growth by 2025.
Following the general election less than two months prior, in which the center-right bloc of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) secured nearly 29% of the vote, the AfD emerged as a significant contender, obtaining approximately 21% of the electorate's support.
In the latest survey results, conducted by infratest dimap from March 31 to April 2 with a sample of 1,334 eligible voters, the CDU/CSU saw a decline, dropping to 26%, the lowest percentage recorded since October 2022. In contrast, the AfD reached a new high of 24%, indicating a growing base of support amid changing political sentiments.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), which aims to form a coalition government with the CDU/CSU, remains stagnant at 16%, marking its lowest-ever result in a general election.
The Green Party, which previously held a position in the caretaker government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), is now polling at 11%, a decrease of 1%.
The socialist Left Party has increased its support to 10%, while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the Free Democrats (FDP) continue to fall below the 5% threshold necessary for parliamentary representation, both polling at 4%.
Leadership challenges are also evident within the CDU.
Friedrich Merz, who aspires to become chancellor, is facing diminishing approval ratings, with 70% of surveyed voters expressing dissatisfaction with his performance.
This decline is closely related to recent policy shifts regarding public debt.
Following the election, Merz introduced changes to the 'debt brake' policy, enabling increased borrowing for defense spending and a €500 billion ($555 billion) infrastructure and climate investment plan, despite previously ruling out new debt.
Many respondents are skeptical of this policy reversal, including a third of CDU/CSU supporters.
The survey indicated that voters prioritize investment in the renovation of schools, daycare centers, and the repair of deteriorating transportation infrastructure.
However, coalition negotiations among the CDU/CSU and SPD are continuing, with reports of contentious issues surrounding proposals for a new property tax and the relocation of asylum procedures.
Public support exists for reducing corporate taxes and establishing speed limits on the Autobahn, while there is a general aversion to raising the retirement age beyond 67 or reintroducing mandatory military service.
As the new German government prepares to address pressing domestic issues, it will also face international challenges, notably the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Poll responses reveal significant concern among the electorate regarding the potential for further Russian aggression in Europe, with two-thirds of participants expressing unease about the stability of NATO alliances and the reliability of U.S. protection.
Concerns over U.S. trade policy are also prevalent, particularly with recent announcements from the U.S. on new tariffs impacting global trade dynamics.
The impending tariffs set to take effect will impose additional costs on imports from the European Union, leading to fears among the German populace about the implications for the national economy.
As a response to these developments, seven out of ten survey respondents support the idea of implementing higher tariffs on U.S. products in retaliation, echoing concerns about the potential detriment to Germany's economic growth.
The Economic Ifo Institute has projected that the new tariffs could lead to a 0.3% reduction in economic growth by 2025.
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